Nov 27, 2007

$700mm Cyber Monday?

ComScore published some data points which are relevant for merchants and CSEs alike:

  • $9.3 billion spent online from November 1 through 23, a record and 17 percent higher than the $8.1 billion spent online last year
  • Online sales on Thanksgiving Day were up 29 percent, while Black Friday sales were up 22 percent from last year
  • Online spending is forecast to exceed $29.5 billion, a record amount but slower growth than previous years at 20 percent -- which brought in $23.6 billion -- and slowing to 5 percent growth
  • From January through October 2007, buyers spent $93.6 billion in online retail stores
  • People shop online mainly for the convenience factor (81 percent said they wanted to be able to shop at any time) and 77 percent said they did it to save time
  • Almost 3/4 of online retailers planned Cyber Monday promotions, almost 30 percent more than the 42 percent that did so last year
  • Shoppers were expected to spend $700mm yesterday, up from $608mm last year!
  • The biggest shopping day is still yet to come in mid-December!
  • Yahoo! Stores, Sears, Circuit City and Lowe's sites were overloaded yesterday...so make sure you've got your servers hotrodded out
  • Shipping incentives and deep discounts were common incentives, with Macy's offering the lowest threshold ever for free shipping at $75

And some extra goodness from Shop.org:

  • 72mm consumers were estimated to have shopped online yesterday, up from 61mm and 59mm in 2006 and 2005, respectively
  • 55 percent of office workers with Internet access did their shopping at work

Written by Scott Hurff -- scott.hurff at channeladvisor

Aug 02, 2007

Post-MeziMedia acquisition: ValueClick lead-gen in danger

ValueClick Q2 earnings reports came in lower than expected two days ago, largely due to their lead-gen biz losing $10mm.  On the conference call, the company said that they're looking  reduce costs on the  lead gen side.

Part of the problem, the company said, has been the FTC investigation into the lead gen industry and  how ValueClick in particular drives traffic to their promotional sites, specifically with the use of email.  As of now, they're operating the same they've always been.

Digging deeper, ValueClick says they've seen "publisher fallout" as a result of the FTC investigation of CAN-SPAM practices -- fear of being related to the investigations, which has left ValueClick with an inability to meet advertiser demand.  Because of that, advertisers have been said to go elsewhere.

Its interesting, though, that the company seeks to cut $7MM in costs on the lead gen side.  If the investigation is only temporary, why take these steps?  Is the business truly drying up, or are they in "violation" of CAN-SPAM?

Despite that, ValueClick saw growth in its advertising business -- helped by concerns of industry consolidation re: GoogClick, MSN / aQuantive, etc.  If the GoogClick deal goes through, they'll be the largest freestanding ad-serving tech player.  Currently they're upping capacity for serving impressions, adding headcount for full-service support and are up 15 percent this year from new business as a result of the mergers.

As for CSE specifics, ValueClick acquired MeziMedia on July 16 and is going to leverage Smarter's SEM and SEO expertise across all divisions -- PriceRunner, which is successful in Europe, will most likely benefit from this, as will monetization across their ad network. 

Have any more info?  Let me know at scott.hurff at channeladvisor

Jul 25, 2007

Scripps Interactive Group revenue down 10%

EW Scripps posted Q2 earnings and the results for Shopzilla (and uSwitch) are anything but overwhelming.

Almost down 10%, Scripps' interactive unit generated $59mm in revenue vs. $65mm during Q2 2006.  Profit for the division declined about 60% to $6.8mm from $16.5mm a year ago.

The Scripps press release reveals what could be a squeeze on the PPC advertising side.   "The competition for bidding on keywords in the search engine marketplace continued to be vigorous, having a direct impact on Shopzilla's results."

Some bits from the conference call:

  • online comparison shopping business isn't as smooth growing as we'd like -- an untested marketplace; growing pains evident
  • gets increasingly difficult to sustain double-digit growth as we  near a billion in revenue
  • common thread connecting businesses is getting in front of trends in media marketplace
  • internet advertising accounting for expanding share of newspaper revenues
  • Shopzilla growing by "leaps and bounds in france, UK..."
  • soundness of our strategy is evident by returns we've delivered
  • Q2: results are "mixed"
  • working through issues in other business segments, including lower referral fee revenue in comparison shopping biz in US, UK
  • broad strategy: move online businesses beyond just extensions of network and create communities online
  • referral fee revenue lower; due to changing market conditions
  • sharp decline in natural gas prices = lower revenue  for switching (uSwitch), but more than double revenue a year ago; leading CSE for utilities in UK
  • shopzilla: focusing on improving online search / CSE experience; comScore led in May, June for unique visitors
  • shopzilla: competition for KWs resulted in "modestly lower" referral fee revenue -- deploying new KW marketing methods (didn't specify)
  • strong revenue growth in European markets for shopzilla

Q&A Session:
Morgan Stanley -- on interactive, Joe, can you give color on rev trends; how should we think about seasonality -- $30-$40mm seems aggressive for year

Rich: the biz is obviously backloaded and we're in slowest period of year right now.  At this point we still feel good about guidance, relative to last year.

Shopzilla has been picking up and accelerating. 

Joe: (read the release!) 

Is Shopzilla expected to see rev growth in Q4?  Yes.

===

Fred from JP Morgan -- how do we think of margin contribution from the interactive side?  What are your thoughts on bringing uSwitch to the US?

Joe: interactive, on a top-line basis, is 6% of ad revenue -- goal to grow over time to be more material.  Will be nearing $100mm mark on interactive revenue on a $900mm ad revenue goal.  25-35% growth depending on Q going fwd.  Becoming material includes pulling in Yahoo! talent (increasing UGC, social networks, growing user-centric business around core brands as we extend connection to linear networks).  Working on exciting ideas to grow interactive biz.  Grow by acquisition, as well. 

Rich: uSwitch & Shopzilla -- Shopzilla is expanding across Europe and numbers are very good over there.  uSwitch categories outside of core energy are weak, but very focused on a strong European market with both Shopzilla and uSwitch.

===

John Janedis from Wachovia -- mentioned challenges in interactive biz for a while now -- are you expecting any kind of moderation as it relates to KW competition bidding and is European mkt much different from US in terms of KWs?

Rich: don't think there will be any moderation for competition in PPC; doing an excellent job of driving paid and free traffic. If you look at Shopzilla's numbers in May/June  you see that.  PPC will continue to be competitive.  Problem is driving the revenue to make up for costs.

European market more free traffic; drive more traffic through traditional means.  Search engine marketing hasn't hit there as big yet.

Free traffic: strong when compared to paid side.

===

Next up:  are rising PPC costs real -- and are they affecting earnings elsewhere?
If you've got any insight / thoughts on this, email me at scott.hurff AT channeladvisor

Jul 11, 2007

$15MM Series C Injection for TheFind to be announced Thursday

170 million products.

500,000 stores indexed.

TheFind has a strong lead as a lifestyle goods product search engine, now boasting 70,000 to 80,000 uniques a day

You may remember that TheFind recently announced a deal with PayPal to power product search for exclusively PayPal stores.

We spoke with Siva today and he said that TF will continue this trend and gain distribution / traffic through similar partnerships in the future. 

He also said one of the key focuses with the new funding will be to improve their search technology -- which already has a strong lead -- and continue to add products from across the Web.  The relevance of TheFind's search engine is probably the most advanced amongst CSEs today, uncovering hard-to-find products like lingerie (thanks to our friend Matt Marshall over at VentureBeat for the example).

Lots of shopping sites are attempting to widgetize / go social, but Siva also mentioned that their core focus is search -- the rest will come later.

 

The investment, to be announced Thursday, was led by Bain Capital Ventures, a firm who  has a track record of investing in the online shopping space.  You may remember that they were an investor in Shopping.com and also have strong connections to large retailers.  This will surely give the CSE an advantage in scoring some key partnerships.

What does this mean for merchants?  TheFind isn't going away anytime soon, it's becoming more visible every day, and it'll be a good place to reach women since they comprise 70 percent of all unique visitors to the site.

Furthermore, since the company doesn't accept payments for merchants to show up in results, there's practically no downside -- and potentially lots of upside -- for being found on...TheFind.

Written by Scott Hurff.  scott.hurff AT channeladvisor (that's dot com).

Nov 27, 2006

Conference call tomorrow (Tues) - CyberMonday Review with Bear Stearns...

I wanted to let all of the CSE Strategies readers know about a conference call I'm participating in with Bob Peck @ Bear Stearns.  Cyber Monday is the topic of the call which is broad and I'm sure in addition to ecommerce, ebay, google checkout, etc. we'll be touching on CSEs as well.

Bob graciously cleared readers of the blog to attend.  Here are the details - I hope you are able to make it!

Dial In 800-683-1535 (domestic); 973-633-6740 (int'l); Passcode# 8155568

Replay: 1-877-519-4471 (domestic); 973-341-3080 (int'l); pin#: 8155568

 

Topics to be Addressed:

The Impact of Cyber Monday on eCommerce

Who Were The Prime Beneficiaries of Cyber Monday

Current Trends on the eBay Platform

The Direction of Conversion Rates and ASPs on eBay

The Role of The Pure Search Engines in eCommerce

How are the Shopping Search Engines Helping Drive Growth

Amazon Webstores

Adoption of Google Checkout

Current Views on PayPal